2024 Election Forecast

Our final forecast for the 2024 elections, frozen on November 5th and scored against the results.

Presidential
Trump 312Harris 226
Trump won the electoral college
Forecast: Harris 55% / Trump 45%
538 electoral votes - 270 to win View forecast ->
Senate
53R - 47D
Republicans gained control
Forecast: Dem 29% / GOP 71%
34 seats contested View forecast ->
House
220R - 215D
Republicans retained control
Forecast: Dem 50% / GOP 50%
435 races View forecast ->