Republicans are the Senate favorites. For now.Democrats are positioned to win the House.

Median outcome: 50 D – 50 R

80% range: 45–55 D seats

Median outcome: 224 D – 211 R

80% range: 200–255 D seats

153 days until the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November

Updated June 2, 2026

Races to Watch

The races that matter most for control of Congress.

Tags top-right show which party gained win probability over the past 3 days.

56%Republican+2%

Expected margin R+1.5

59%Republican+2%

Expected margin R+2.1

60%Republican+2%

Expected margin R+2.5

Expected margin D+4.4

Expected margin D+0.1

Derrick Van Orden

Expected margin D+0.2

Expected margin D+0.3

Robert Lulgjuraj

Expected margin D+0.7

Vicente Gonzalez

Expected margin D+0.8

Janelle Stelson

Expected margin D+1.2

Sarah Trone Garriott

72%Republican+4%

Expected margin R+7.2

97%Republican+95%

Expected margin R+21.1

Four signals. One daily forecast. Four signals. One nightly forecast.

01

Fundamentals

How red or blue is the seat? Who's running? Are they any good? Each race starts here, anchored to decades of historical results.

02

National Environment

These races didn't just fall out of a coconut tree. They exist in the context of generic ballot polls and what came before them.

03

Polls

Polls update every race they touch — weighted by sample size, recency, and pollster quality. For races without polls, the model borrows from similar districts and states that have historically tracked together.

04

Simulation

Run the election — literally — over a million times with realistic noise (national swings, regional waves, demographic shifts) and see what happens. That's where every number on this site comes from.

Read the full methodology →