Republicans are the Senate favorites. For now.Democrats are positioned to win the House.
The races that matter most for control of Congress.
Four signals. One daily forecast. Four signals. One nightly forecast.
01 Fundamentals
How red or blue is the seat? Who's running? Are they any good? Each race starts here, anchored to decades of historical results.
02 National Environment
These races didn't just fall out of a coconut tree. They exist in the context of generic ballot polls — weighted by recency, quality, and what came before.
03 Polls
Polls update every race they touch — weighted by sample size, recency, and pollster quality. For races without polls, the model borrows from similar districts and states that have historically tracked together.
04 Simulation
Run the election — literally — over a million times with realistic noise (national swings, regional waves, demographic shifts) and see what happens. That's where every number on this site comes from.