Democrats are winning everywhere that matters.
Updated October 9, 2026
Races to Watch
Too close to call. Too important to ignore.
Interactives
- Wisdom of the Crowd It’s like a fantasy league for aspiring cable news pundits. Set your odds for 35 Senate races and try to beat the Solid Purple forecast.
- Crosstab Diver Have a theory about the 2026 electorate? Put it to the test. Change who votes and who they vote for, then see how the House and Senate shake out.
- Scenario Builder Your hot takes now come with arithmetic. Pick Senate winners and see what those calls would mean for each party’s chances of taking the chamber.
- Path to 218 The House has 435 seats. You only need to obsess over the close ones. Flip competitive districts and assemble a majority for either party.
Four signals. One daily forecast. Four signals. One nightly forecast.
01
Fundamentals
How red or blue is the seat? Who's running? Are they any good? Each race starts here, anchored to decades of historical results.
02
National Environment
These races didn't just fall out of a coconut tree. They exist in the context of generic ballot polls and what came before them.
03
Polls
Polls update every race they touch — weighted by sample size, recency, and pollster quality. For races without polls, the model borrows from similar districts and states that have historically tracked together.
04
Simulation
Run the election — literally — over a million times with realistic noise (national swings, regional waves, demographic shifts) and see what happens. That's where every number on this site comes from.