2024 Presidential Forecast
55%
45%Trump
Final snapshot of the Solid Purple presidential model on November 5, 2024. Compare the model's distribution against the actual electoral and popular vote results.
Trump 268
Harris 270Forecast winner
Solid R
Likely R
Lean R
Tilt R
Tilt D
Lean D
Likely D
Solid D
CT
DC
DE
MA
MD
NH
NJ
RI
VT
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Simulated Outcome Distribution
Density of Harris electoral-vote totals across thousands of model simulations.
Trump wins (< 270)
Harris wins (≥ 270)
Win Probability Over Time
Chance each candidate wins the electoral college, July → November 2024.
Harris 55%
Trump 45%
Popular Vote Forecast
Forecast share of the national two-party vote for each candidate.
Harris 50.5%
Trump 47.6%
Tipping Point States
Probability each state would be the decisive 270th electoral vote.
Can They Win Without It?
Probability each candidate still wins the election while losing this state.
Arizona
Harris wins without it36%
Trump wins without it16%
Georgia
Harris wins without it40%
Trump wins without it19%
Michigan
Harris wins without it14%
Trump wins without it13%
Nevada
Harris wins without it37%
Trump wins without it21%
North Carolina
Harris wins without it34%
Trump wins without it10%
Pennsylvania
Harris wins without it18%
Trump wins without it9%
Wisconsin
Harris wins without it19%
Trump wins without it13%
Electoral College Bias
Conditional probability each candidate wins the election given a specific national popular-vote margin. Note how Trump can lose the popular vote narrowly and still win the electoral college most of the time.
| Popular Vote | Harris Wins | Tie | Trump Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| R +6 to +5 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| R +5 to +4 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| R +4 to +3 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| R +3 to +2 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| R +2 to +1 | 1% | 0% | 99% |
| R +1 to +0 | 9% | 0% | 91% |
| D +0 to +1 | 34% | 1% | 65% |
| D +1 to +2 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| D +2 to +3 | 93% | 0% | 7% |
| D +3 to +4 | 99% | 0% | 1% |
| D +4 to +5 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| D +5 to +6 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
Scenario Probabilities
Tail-event probabilities from the simulation.
Landslide (350+ EV)
Chance of a runaway electoral college win.
19%
Harris
6%
Trump
Popular vote +10 pts
Chance of a national popular-vote blowout.
11%
Harris
1%
Trump
Wins a new state
Chance of flipping a state the party didn’t win in 2020.
67%
Harris
87%
Trump
Loses pop vote, wins EC
Chance of an electoral / popular vote split.
1%
Harris
14%
Trump
269–269 tie
Chance of an exact electoral college tie thrown to the House.
1%
State-by-State Results
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| State | EV | Forecast | Harris Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nevada | 6 | Trump +0.4 Tilt R | 48%52% | Trump +3.2 Trump won | 2.8 pp | Harris +2.8 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania | 19 | Harris +0.8 Tilt D | 54%46% | Trump +1.7 Trump won | 2.5 pp | Harris +2.5 | ✗ |
Wisconsin | 10 | Harris +1.4 Tilt D | 56%44% | Trump +0.9 Trump won | 2.3 pp | Harris +2.3 | ✗ |
Arizona | 11 | Trump +1.4 Tilt R | 44%56% | Trump +5.6 Trump won | 4.2 pp | Harris +4.2 | ✓ |
Georgia | 16 | Trump +1.4 Tilt R | 43%57% | Trump +2.2 Trump won | 0.8 pp | Harris +0.8 | ✓ |
North Carolina | 16 | Trump +1.6 Tilt R | 42%58% | Trump +3.3 Trump won | 1.7 pp | Harris +1.7 | ✓ |
Michigan | 15 | Harris +2.1 Tilt D | 60%40% | Trump +1.4 Trump won | 3.5 pp | Harris +3.5 | ✗ |
Iowa | 6 | Trump +2.9 Tilt R | 37%63% | Trump +13.4 Trump won | 10.4 pp | Harris +10.4 | ✓ |
Maine CD2 Congressional district | 1 | Trump +4.1 Lean R | 33%67% | Trump +9.2 Trump won | 5.1 pp | Harris +5.1 | ✓ |
Florida | 30 | Trump +6.4 Likely R | 23%77% | Trump +13.2 Trump won | 6.8 pp | Harris +6.8 | ✓ |
Ohio | 17 | Trump +6.8 Likely R | 21%79% | Trump +11.3 Trump won | 4.5 pp | Harris +4.5 | ✓ |
New Mexico | 5 | Harris +6.9 Likely D | 78%22% | Harris +6.1 Harris won | 0.8 pp | Harris +0.8 | ✓ |
Kansas | 6 | Trump +7.1 Likely R | 21%79% | Trump +16.4 Trump won | 9.3 pp | Harris +9.3 | ✓ |
Virginia | 13 | Harris +7.3 Likely D | 82%18% | Harris +5.9 Harris won | 1.4 pp | Harris +1.4 | ✓ |
Texas | 40 | Trump +7.3 Likely R | 20%80% | Trump +13.9 Trump won | 6.6 pp | Harris +6.6 | ✓ |
New Hampshire | 4 | Harris +7.6 Likely D | 77%23% | Harris +2.8 Harris won | 4.8 pp | Harris +4.8 | ✓ |
Minnesota | 10 | Harris +7.7 Likely D | 82%18% | Harris +4.3 Harris won | 3.4 pp | Harris +3.4 | ✓ |
Nebraska CD2 Congressional district | 1 | Harris +8.9 Solid D | 85%15% | Harris +4.7 Harris won | 4.2 pp | Harris +4.2 | ✓ |
Alaska | 3 | Trump +9.7 Likely R | 17%83% | Trump +13.7 Trump won | 4.0 pp | Harris +4.0 | ✓ |
Nebraska CD1 Congressional district | 1 | Trump +9.7 Solid R | 13%87% | Trump +13.2 Trump won | 3.5 pp | Harris +3.5 | ✓ |
Maine | 2 | Harris +10.0 Solid D | 85%15% | Harris +7.1 Harris won | 2.9 pp | Harris +2.9 | ✓ |
South Carolina | 9 | Trump +12.1 Solid R | 7%93% | Trump +18.1 Trump won | 6.0 pp | Harris +6.0 | ✓ |
Oregon | 8 | Harris +13.2 Solid D | 95%5% | Harris +14.9 Harris won | 1.7 pp | Trump +1.7 | ✓ |
Colorado | 10 | Harris +13.3 Solid D | 93%7% | Harris +11.3 Harris won | 2.0 pp | Harris +2.0 | ✓ |
New Jersey | 14 | Harris +13.6 Solid D | 94%6% | Harris +6.0 Harris won | 7.5 pp | Harris +7.5 | ✓ |
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