2024 Senate Forecast
71%
29%Dem
34 seats contested.
Solid D 15
Likely D 0
Lean D 3
Tilt D 2
Tossup 0
Tilt R 1
Lean R 1
Likely R 2
Solid R 10
18 Dem-favored · 0 Tossup · 13 GOP-favored
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Control Probability Over Time
Senate · D (blue) and R (red) chance of majority
Dem 29%
GOP 71%
Competitive Races
7 of 7
| Race | Forecast | D Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Senate Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R+1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R+3.6 GOP won | 2.6 pp | D+2.6 | ✓ |
Wisconsin Senate Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D+2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D+0.8 Dem won | 1.5 pp | D+1.5 | ✓ |
Nevada Senate Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D+3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D+1.6 Dem won | 1.4 pp | D+1.4 | ✓ |
Michigan Senate Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D+3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D+0.3 Dem won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
Arizona Senate Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D+3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D+2.4 Dem won | 1.5 pp | D+1.5 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania Senate Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D+4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R+0.2 GOP won | 4.8 pp | D+4.8 | ✗ |
Texas Senate Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R+5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R+8.5 GOP won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
All Races
34 of 34
| Race | Forecast | D Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Senate Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R+1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R+3.6 GOP won | 2.6 pp | D+2.6 | ✓ |
Wisconsin Senate Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D+2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D+0.8 Dem won | 1.5 pp | D+1.5 | ✓ |
Nevada Senate Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D+3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D+1.6 Dem won | 1.4 pp | D+1.4 | ✓ |
Michigan Senate Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D+3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D+0.3 Dem won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
Arizona Senate Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D+3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D+2.4 Dem won | 1.5 pp | D+1.5 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania Senate Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D+4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R+0.2 GOP won | 4.8 pp | D+4.8 | ✗ |
Texas Senate Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R+5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R+8.5 GOP won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
Montana Senate Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy | R+6.6 Likely R | 21%79% | R+7.1 GOP won | 0.5 pp | D+0.5 | ✓ |
Florida Senate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs Rick Scott | R+6.8 Likely R | 22%78% | R+12.8 GOP won | 6.0 pp | D+6.0 | ✓ |
Nebraska Senate Dan Osborn (I) vs Deb Fischer | R+9.3 Solid R | 15%85% | R+6.7 GOP won | 2.6 pp | R+2.6 | ✓ |
Virginia Senate Tim Kaine vs Hung Cao | D+9.6 Solid D | 88%12% | D+8.9 Dem won | 0.7 pp | D+0.7 | ✓ |
Missouri Senate Lucas Kunce vs Josh Hawley | R+10.8 Solid R | 9%91% | R+13.7 GOP won | 2.9 pp | D+2.9 | ✓ |
Minnesota Senate Amy Klobuchar vs Royce White | D+10.8 Solid D | 90%10% | D+15.7 Dem won | 4.9 pp | R+4.9 | ✓ |
Maryland Senate Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan | D+12.4 Solid D | 95%5% | D+11.8 Dem won | 0.6 pp | D+0.6 | ✓ |
New Mexico Senate Martin Heinrich vs Nella Domenici | D+13.1 Solid D | 92%8% | D+10.1 Dem won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
Indiana Senate Valerie Mccray vs Jim Banks | R+14.0 Solid R | 5%95% | R+19.9 GOP won | 5.9 pp | D+5.9 | ✓ |
New Jersey Senate Andy Kim vs Curtis Bashaw | D+15.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D+9.6 Dem won | 5.6 pp | D+5.6 | ✓ |
Washington Senate Maria Cantwell vs Raul Garcia | D+15.7 Solid D | 96%4% | D+18.5 Dem won | 2.8 pp | R+2.8 | ✓ |
Connecticut Senate Chris Murphy vs Matthew Corey | D+17.1 Solid D | 97%3% | D+18.9 Dem won | 1.0 pp | R+1.8 | ✓ |
Mississippi Senate Ty Pinkins vs Roger Wicker | R+17.5 Solid R | 1%99% | R+25.6 GOP won | 8.1 pp | D+8.1 | ✓ |
Delaware Senate Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen | D+19.1 Solid D | 100%0% | D+17.1 Dem won | 2.0 pp | D+2.0 | ✓ |
Rhode Island Senate Sheldon Whitehouse vs Patricia Morgan | D+19.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D+20.0 Dem won | 0.8 pp | R+0.8 | ✓ |
Nebraska Senate Special Preston Love Jr. vs Pete Ricketts | R+19.3 Solid R | 1%99% | R+25.2 GOP won | 5.9 pp | D+5.9 | ✓ |
Maine Senate Angus King (I, caucuses D) vs Demi Kouzounas | D+21.1 Solid D | 98%2% | D+17.4 Independent won | 3.7 pp | D+3.7 | ✓ |
New York Senate Kirsten Gillibrand vs Mike Sapraicone | D+21.3 Solid D | 100%0% | D+18.3 Dem won | 3.0 pp | D+3.0 | ✓ |
Tennessee Senate Gloria Johnson vs Marsha Blackburn | R+22.6 Solid R | 0%100% | R+29.6 GOP won | 7.0 pp | D+7.0 | ✓ |
California Senate Adam Schiff vs Steve Garvey | D+22.8 Solid D | 100%0% | D+17.7 Dem won | 5.1 pp | D+5.1 | ✓ |
North Dakota Senate Katrina Christiansen vs Kevin Cramer | R+23.8 Solid R | 0%100% | R+32.9 GOP won | 9.1 pp | D+9.1 | ✓ |
Massachusetts Senate Elizabeth Warren vs John Deaton | D+24.5 Solid D | 99%1% | D+19.8 Dem won | 4.7 pp | D+4.7 | ✓ |
Utah Senate Caroline Gleich vs John Curtis | R+27.5 Solid R | 0%100% | R+30.8 GOP won | 3.3 pp | D+3.3 | ✓ |
Hawaii Senate Mazie Hirono vs Bob Mcdermott | D+31.0 Solid D | 100%0% | D+32.7 Dem won | 1.7 pp | R+1.7 | ✓ |
West Virginia Senate Glenn Elliott vs Jim Justice | R+34.7 Solid R | 0%100% | R+41.0 GOP won | 6.3 pp | D+6.3 | ✓ |
Vermont Senate Bernie Sanders (I, caucuses D) vs Gerald Malloy | D+39.2 Solid D | 100%0% | D+31.1 Independent won | 8.1 pp | D+8.1 | ✓ |
Wyoming Senate Scott Morrow vs John Barrasso | R+45.1 Solid R | 0%100% | R+51.0 GOP won | 5.9 pp | D+5.9 | ✓ |