Empire State of Mind
The Long Island, Hudson Valley, and North Jersey seats that decide who runs the House.
6 races
NY-03
NY-04
NY-17
NY-19
NJ-07
NJ-09
Toggle the storylines below and watch the House majority odds shift.
45% Dem majority baseline
55% GOP majority baseline
217 avg D seats
45%
P(D ≥ 218)
~217 D seats
Baseline scenario
It's going to come down to crucial Waukesha county — 45% D / 55% R majority odds, ~217 D seats on average.
Groundhog Day
Pennsylvania's four familiar battleground seats, from Bucks County to Harrisburg.
4 races
PA-01
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
Best Coast
The few remaining competitive California districts post-ballot measure.
3 races
CA-22
CA-45
CA-48
Borderlands
Latino-heavy districts where the 2024 rightward shift still shapes how both parties talk about the House.
4 races
CA-13
NM-02
TX-28
TX-34
Little Boxes
Rapid-growth metro and outer-suburban seats from Phoenix to Las Vegas, Omaha, Colorado, and Virginia where the suburban mood is the story.
6 races
AZ-06
CO-08
NV-01
NV-03
NV-04
VA-02
Born in the U.S.A.
Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio seats where small shifts among working-class, small-city, and union-adjacent voters can flip multiple races.
6 races
IA-01
IA-03
MI-07
MI-08
OH-01
OH-09
"All Politics is Local"
Personal-brand or institutionally unusual seats where an incumbent, election rules, or recent seat history defies the district's partisan lean.
3 races
IN-01
NC-01
WA-03
Decision to Leave
Seats where the result is now far more uncertain because the incumbent is not running again.
8 races
AZ-01
IA-02
ME-02
MI-10
MT-01
NE-02
NH-01
TX-35