Arkansas Senate
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +25.1·80% of simulations: R +37.0 to R +13.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +27.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +1.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +25.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | Feb 9, 2026 | R +22 | 550 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 1%
R 99%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+31).
- Candidates
- Hallie Shoffner (D) Tom Cotton (R) (inc.)