Arizona's 1st Congressional District
58%
Dem
42%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.3·80% of simulations: R +12.4 to D +17.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +1.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +2.3
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | Nov 17, 2025 | D +3 | 500 | lv |
| GrayHouse | Nov 17, 2025 | Even | 500 | lv |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | Nov 5, 2025 | R +1 | 676 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 58%
R 42%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+2).
- Candidates
- Jonathan Treble (D) Thomas Feely (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Arizona.