Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
80%
GOP
20%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.7·80% of simulations: R +22.3 to D +5.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
R +8.7
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 14, 2026 | D +3 | 673 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 20%
R 80%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+9).
- Candidates
- Lindsay James (D) Joe Mitchell (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.