Michigan's 7th Congressional District
51%
Dem
49%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.2·80% of simulations: R +13.4 to D +13.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +0.2
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | D +1 | 519 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | D +1 | 519 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 28, 2025 | D +4 | 557 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 28, 2025 | D +4 | 557 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 51%
R 49%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (R+1).
- Candidates
- Bridget Brink (D) Tom Barrett (R) (inc.)