Michigan Senate
58%
Dem
42%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.0·80% of simulations: R +10.9 to D +14.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
D +2.0
Polls
Polls (36)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights | May 23, 2026 | D +7 | 1,163 | lv |
| TIPP Insights | May 23, 2026 | D +1 | 1,163 | lv |
| TIPP Insights | May 23, 2026 | D +4 | 1,163 | lv |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | May 7, 2026 | R +1 | 607 | lv |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | May 7, 2026 | R +2 | 606 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 58%
R 42%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+0).
- Candidates
- Haley Stevens (D) Mike Rogers (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.