North Carolina Senate
60%
Dem
40%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.5·80% of simulations: R +10.4 to D +15.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +2.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.3
Forecasted margin
D +2.5
Polls
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | May 11, 2026 | D +11 | 600 | lv |
| Change Research | May 8, 2026 | D +7 | 957 | lv |
| Opinion Diagnostics | Apr 24, 2026 | D +9 | 830 | rv |
| High Point University | Apr 6, 2026 | D +8 | 703 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | Apr 1, 2026 | D +5 | 987 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 60%
R 40%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Roy Cooper (D) Michael Whatley (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.