New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
91%
Dem
9%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +12.7·80% of simulations: D +0.4 to D +25.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +12.7
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Anselm | Mar 18, 2026 | D +12 | 739 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 19, 2026 | D +14 | 1,094 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Nov 19, 2025 | D +5 | 1,102 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 23, 2025 | D +12 | 508 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Aug 27, 2025 | D +18 | 881 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 91%
R 9%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Maggie Goodlander (D) (inc.) Lily Tang Williams (R)