New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District
69%
Dem
31%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.1·80% of simulations: R +8.4 to D +18.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +0.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +5.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Apr 28, 2026 | D +2 | 879 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 69%
R 31%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (D+0).
- Candidates
- Gabe Vasquez (D) (inc.) Greg Cunningham (R)