Ohio's 9th Congressional District
56%
GOP
44%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.4·80% of simulations: R +15.1 to D +12.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +1.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 20, 2026 | R +4 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 44%
R 56%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+10).
- Candidates
- Marcy Kaptur (D) (inc.) Derek Merrin (R)