Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
54%
GOP
46%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.0·80% of simulations: R +14.6 to D +12.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +1.0
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Apr 23, 2026 | D +6 | 400 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 19, 2025 | D +4 | 549 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 11, 2025 | D +3 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 46%
R 54%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Janelle Stelson (D) Scott Perry (R) (inc.)