South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +13.3·80% of simulations: R +28.3 to D +1.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +13.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 6, 2025 | R +3 | 645 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 13%
R 87%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- William Deford (D) Sam McCown (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Carolina.