Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District
88%
GOP
12%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.9·80% of simulations: R +25.3 to D +1.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +12.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +11.9
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 16, 2026 | R +9 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 12%
R 88%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+4).
- Candidates
- Mitchell Berman (D) Bryan Steil (R) (inc.)