Solid Purple is an independently produced statistical forecast covering all 470 federal House and Senate races in the 2026 US midterm elections. It was built and is maintained by Zach Heltzel, a writer and comedian based in Los Angeles who took a few too many market research and statistics courses in college and has a deep-seated emotional need to feel in control over things he is equally anxious about and powerless over.
Most election forecasts are built by newsrooms or academics with institutional backing. This one was built in a one-bedroom apartment in West Hollywood with little more than a diagnosis of low support needs autism and an oppositional defiance to the concept of the sunk cost fallacy. That's less of a selling point and more of a disclosure. What is a selling point is that I'm champing at the bit for feedback and would love to take a crack at producing any feature or data set you want to see in the world.
If you're curious about all the nitty-gritty details of how Solid Purple works, the Methodology page goes as deep as I can go before I start feeling like an impostor.
If you like it here, you should look at these sites too. Where Solid Purple agrees with the consensus, that's useful. Where it doesn't, that's more useful.