68%
32%GOP
Tap a state to explore
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Control Odds Over Time
House · D (blue) and R (red) chance of majority
Dem 68%
GOP 32%
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
| Pennsylvania 10 | Tossup | 51% | Dem +0.2 |
| Wisconsin 3 | Tossup | 51% | Dem +0.3 |
| Ohio 9 | Tossup | 51% | Dem +0.4 |
| California 22 | Tossup | 52% | Dem +0.6 |
| Texas 34 | Tossup | 52% | Dem +0.6 |
| Iowa 1 | Tossup | 52% | Dem +0.7 |
| Virginia 1 | Tossup | 48% | GOP +0.7 |
| Michigan 10 | Tossup | 53% | Dem +1.0 |
| Pennsylvania 1 | Tossup | 46% | GOP +1.3 |
| Iowa 3 | Tossup | 55% | Dem +1.6 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Tossup | 43% | GOP +2.0 |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Tossup | 58% | Dem +2.2 |
| Florida 25 | Tossup | 60% | Dem +2.8 |
| Florida 14 | Tossup | 60% | Dem +3.2 |
| Colorado 8 | Lean D | 60% | Dem +3.0 |
| Michigan 7 | Lean D | 61% | Dem +3.4 |
| Florida 22 | Lean D | 62% | Dem +3.9 |
| Virginia 2 | Lean D | 62% | Dem +3.8 |
| North Carolina 1 | Lean R | 37% | GOP +3.6 |
| Arizona 6 | Lean D | 64% | Dem +4.2 |
| Michigan 4 | Lean R | 36% | GOP +4.3 |
| Iowa 2 | Lean R | 34% | GOP +5.2 |
| Maine 2 | Lean R | 34% | GOP +4.9 |
| North Carolina 11 | Lean R | 34% | GOP +5.1 |
| New Jersey 7 | Lean D | 68% | Dem +6.0 |
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