Alaska At-Large
76%
GOP
24%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +8.1·80% of simulations: GOP +23.2 to Dem +7.1
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-11.9 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.5 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.3 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +8.1
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-02-12 | GOP +8 | 600 | lv |
| Data for Progress | 2025-10-23 | GOP +13 | 823 | lv |
| Data for Progress | 2025-07-27 | GOP +12 | 678 | lv |
| Data for Progress | 2025-03-07 | EVEN | 1,008 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 24%
R 76%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Matthew Schultz (D) Nicholas Begich (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting