Alaska Senate
61%
GOP
39%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +2.9·80% of simulations: GOP +17.1 to Dem +11.3
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-11.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+0.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.3 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+1.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +2.9
Polls
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-04-19 | Dem +7 | 1,946 | lv |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | Dem +5 | 1,340 | rv |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | Dem +6 | 1,340 | rv |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | Dem +5 | 1,340 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | Dem +2 | 611 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 39%
R 61%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Mary Peltola (D) Dan Sullivan (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting