California's 3rd Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +21.8·80% of simulations: Dem +8.6 to Dem +35.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+10.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+4.0 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.3 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +21.8
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 2025-07-10 | GOP +2 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 98%
R 2%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Democratic (D+12).
- Candidates
- Ami Bera (D) (inc.) Christine Bish (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat Status
- Redistricted via Prop 50 (Nov 2025). Old district R+4; new district D+6 (Cook Baseline). Kiley (R) moved to CA-06; Bera (D, from CA-06) running here. 2024 presidential on new lines: Harris 53.4-Trump 43.2 (D+10).