California's 41st Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +21.8·80% of simulations: Dem +8.3 to Dem +35.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+16.1 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-0.3 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+5.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +21.7
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 97%
R 3%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Democratic (D+18).
- Candidates
- Linda Sanchez (D) (inc.) GOP: TBD
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat Status
- Redistricted via Prop 50 (Nov 2025). Old district R+4 (Riverside Co); new district D+19 (LA Co, Latino-majority). Calvert (R) moved to CA-40; Sánchez (D, from CA-38) running here. 2024 presidential on new lines: Harris 61-Trump 36 (D+25).