Florida Senate
74%
GOP
26%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +7.2·80% of simulations: GOP +22.1 to Dem +7.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-9.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.0 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.5 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +7.2
Polls
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-13 | GOP +15 | 414 | lv |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-13 | GOP +8 | 434 | lv |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | GOP +8 | 406 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-04-03 | GOP +4 | 574 | rv |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | GOP +1 | 1,834 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 26%
R 74%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Ashley Moody (R) Dem: TBD
- Seat Status
- vacated Jan 2025 for Secretary of State; seat filled by appointment; special election in 2026