Georgia Senate
74%
Dem
26%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +7.4·80% of simulations: GOP +7.5 to Dem +22.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-1.4 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-1.0 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +7.3
Polls
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | Dem +10 | 407 | lv |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | Dem +7 | 407 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-02 | Dem +4 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-02 | Dem +8 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-02 | Dem +5 | 1,000 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 74%
R 26%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+2).
- Candidates
- Jon Ossoff (D) (inc.) Buddy Carter (R)