Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
55%
Dem
45%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +1.6·80% of simulations: GOP +14.2 to Dem +17.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-3.1 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.4 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +1.6
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2025-10-27 | Dem +14 | 638 | lv |
| Change Research | 2025-10-27 | Dem +9 | 638 | lv |
| Change Research | 2025-10-27 | Dem +3 | 638 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-09-18 | EVEN | 717 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 55%
R 45%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Sarah Trone Garriott (D) Zach Nunn (R) (inc.)