Kentucky Senate
97%
GOP
3%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +21.5·80% of simulations: GOP +34.8 to GOP +8.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-26.9 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+0.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+4.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +21.5
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-12-19 | GOP +13 | 650 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 3%
R 97%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+30).
- Candidates
- Charles Booker (D) Andy Barr (R)
- Seat Status
- retired