Maine's 2nd Congressional District
65%
GOP
35%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +4.6·80% of simulations: GOP +20.4 to Dem +11.3
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-7.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.2 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.7 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.4 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +4.6
Polls
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upswing Research | 2026-02-27 | GOP +7 | 403 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | GOP +4 | 520 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | GOP +1 | 520 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | GOP +1 | 520 | lv |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 2025-12-07 | GOP +1 | 387 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 35%
R 65%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Jordan Wood (D) Paul LePage (R)
- Seat Status
- retired