Michigan's 4th Congressional District
64%
GOP
36%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +4.0·80% of simulations: GOP +18.9 to Dem +10.9
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-4.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-8.9 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +4.0
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-21 | GOP +2 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 36%
R 64%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Sean McCann (D) William Huizenga (R) (inc.)