Michigan's 7th Congressional District
62%
Dem
38%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +3.9·80% of simulations: GOP +12.4 to Dem +20.2
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-0.8 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+10.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +3.8
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-10-28 | Dem +5 | 557 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-10-28 | Dem +5 | 557 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 62%
R 38%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (R+1).
- Candidates
- Bridget Brink (D) Tom Barrett (R) (inc.)