Michigan Senate
70%
Dem
30%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +6.1·80% of simulations: GOP +9.4 to Dem +21.6
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-0.3 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.8 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+10.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +6.1
Polls
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | GOP +0 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | Dem +4 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | Dem +6 | 1,000 | lv |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-01-06 | GOP +7 | 600 | lv |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-01-06 | GOP +4 | 600 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 70%
R 30%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+0).
- Candidates
- Haley Stevens (D) Mike Rogers (R)
- Seat Status
- retired