Minnesota Senate
88%
Dem
12%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +12.7·80% of simulations: GOP +1.3 to Dem +26.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+4.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-1.0 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +12.7
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2026-02-08 | Dem +7 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-08 | Dem +7 | 1,000 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-09-16 | Dem +4 | 1,015 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-09-16 | Dem +2 | 1,015 | lv |
| Impact Research | 2025-07-11 | Dem +3 | 604 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 88%
R 12%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Peggy Flanagan (D) Adam Schwarze (R)
- Seat Status
- retired