Montana's 1st Congressional District
69%
GOP
31%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +5.7·80% of simulations: GOP +20.7 to Dem +9.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-9.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.9 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.7 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +5.7
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights | 2026-01-15 | GOP +7 | 400 | lv |
| Peak Insights | 2026-01-15 | GOP +12 | 400 | lv |
| Tulchin Research | 2025-11-25 | Dem +4 | 424 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 31%
R 69%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+10).
- Candidates
- Russell Cleveland (D) Aaron Flint (R)