Montana Senate

88%

GOP

12%Dem

Likely R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: GOP +13.3·80% of simulations: GOP +27.7 to Dem +1.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

-17.7 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

-1.1 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+5.5 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.0 pp

Forecasted margin

GOP +13.3

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
American Pulse Research & Polling	2026-02-18	GOP +15	607	lv
American Pulse Research & Polling	2026-02-18	GOP +35	607	lv
yes. every kid. foundation.	2026-01-26	GOP +39	500	rv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 12%

R 88%

Context