North Carolina's 8th Congressional District

94%

GOP

6%Dem

Likely R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: GOP +17.9·80% of simulations: GOP +32.4 to GOP +3.4

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

-17.7 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

-6.2 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+5.9 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.1 pp

Forecasted margin

GOP +17.9

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 6%

R 94%

Context