Nebraska Senate

87%

GOP

13%Ind

Likely R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: GOP +12.6·80% of simulations: GOP +27.3 to Ind +2.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

-18.5 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

+0.4 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+5.4 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.1 pp

Forecasted margin

GOP +12.6

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Impact Research	2026-02-05	EVEN	600	lv
Lake Research Partners	2025-12-17	EVEN	900	lv
Lake Research Partners	2025-07-29	EVEN	900	lv
Change Research	2025-04-01	EVEN	524	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

I (purple) and R (red) win probability over time

I 13%

R 87%

Context