New Jersey's 6th Congressional District

98%

Dem

2%GOP

Solid D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: Dem +22.2·80% of simulations: Dem +8.9 to Dem +35.4

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

+8.9 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

+5.2 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+8.3 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

-0.2 pp

Forecasted margin

Dem +22.2

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 98%

R 2%

Context