New Jersey Senate

96%

Dem

4%GOP

Solid D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: Dem +19.1·80% of simulations: Dem +6.0 to Dem +32.2

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

+7.7 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

+2.7 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+8.7 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.0 pp

Forecasted margin

Dem +19.1

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 96%

R 4%

Context