New York's 1st Congressional District
73%
GOP
27%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +7.6·80% of simulations: GOP +24.2 to Dem +9.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-7.3 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-8.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.4 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +7.6
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-12-11 | GOP +4 | 579 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 27%
R 73%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Christopher Gallant (D) Nick LaLota (R) (inc.)