New York's 18th Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +17.6·80% of simulations: Dem +4.6 to Dem +30.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+4.4 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+4.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.4 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +17.6
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-02-17 | Dem +9 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 95%
R 5%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Patrick Ryan (D) (inc.) GOP: TBD