Ohio Senate
55%
GOP
45%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +1.3·80% of simulations: GOP +15.6 to Dem +12.9
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-9.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+0.2 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +1.3
Polls
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | 2026-04-14 | GOP +3 | 1,000 | rv |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | GOP +6 | 413 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-03-14 | GOP +1 | 784 | lv |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2026-03-08 | Dem +2 | 600 | lv |
| EMC Research | 2026-02-22 | Dem +4 | 1,343 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 45%
R 55%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Sherrod Brown (D) Jon Husted (R)
- Seat Status
- vacated Jan 2025 for vice presidency; seat filled by appointment; special election in 2026