Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District

96%

GOP

4%Dem

Solid R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: GOP +20.7·80% of simulations: GOP +34.9 to GOP +6.6

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

-20.5 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

-5.6 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+5.5 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

-0.1 pp

Forecasted margin

GOP +20.7

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 4%

R 96%

Context