Texas's 35th Congressional District
72%
GOP
28%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +7.1·80% of simulations: GOP +23.6 to Dem +9.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-7.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-7.6 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +7.1
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 28%
R 72%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Johnny Garcia (D) GOP: TBD
- Seat Status
- R103: Open seat after 2026 Texas redistricting; Greg Casar is running in TX-37, not TX-35. Johnny Garcia is not the incumbent.