63%
37%Dem
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 34 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 17 out of 35.
34 D seats not up for election
3599% D3698% D3798% D3898% D3997% D4097% D4197% D4296% D4396% D4488% D4579% D4674% D4769% D4868% D4965% D5055% R← GOP Holds | Dem Flips →
51 for majority
5162% R5274% R5375% R5476% R5587% R5688% R5788% R5888% R5993% R6094% R6197% R6297% R6398% R6498% R6598% R6699% R6799% R68100% R69100% RSorted from most likely D to most likely R. The highlighted race is the tipping point. Win that race, win the Senate.
Control Odds Over Time
Senate · D (blue) and R (red) chance of majority
Dem 37%
GOP 63%
Range of Outcomes
Show all Senate races
| Ohio | Tossup | 45% | GOP +1.5 |
| Alaska | Lean R | 38% | GOP +3.2 |
| North Carolina | Lean D | 65% | Dem +4.2 |
| Maine | Lean D | 68% | Dem +5.4 |
| Michigan | Lean D | 69% | Dem +5.6 |
| Florida | Lean R | 26% | GOP +7.2 |
| Georgia | Lean D | 74% | Dem +7.3 |
| Iowa | Lean R | 25% | GOP +7.5 |
| Texas | Lean R | 24% | GOP +7.8 |
| New Hampshire | Lean D | 79% | Dem +9.0 |
| Nebraska | Likely R | 13% | GOP +12.6 |
| South Carolina | Likely R | 12% | GOP +13.0 |
| Minnesota | Likely D | 88% | Dem +12.7 |
| Kansas | Likely R | 12% | GOP +13.5 |
| Montana | Likely R | 12% | GOP +13.3 |
| Mississippi | Likely R | 7% | GOP +16.1 |
| Louisiana | Likely R | 6% | GOP +17.5 |
| Virginia | Solid D | 96% | Dem +18.7 |
| New Jersey | Solid D | 96% | Dem +18.9 |
| New Mexico | Solid D | 97% | Dem +19.1 |
| Illinois | Solid D | 97% | Dem +19.3 |
| Alabama | Solid R | 3% | GOP +21.0 |
| Colorado | Solid D | 97% | Dem +20.1 |
| Kentucky | Solid R | 3% | GOP +21.5 |
| Oregon | Solid D | 98% | Dem +21.0 |
1–25 of 35
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