Texas Senate
66%
GOP
34%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.6·80% of simulations: R +15.7 to D +8.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +3.6
Forecasted margin
R +3.6
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Jun 4, 2026 | R +2 | 800 | lv |
| Slingshot Strategies | May 28, 2026 | D +3 | 1,670 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | May 23, 2026 | D +7 | 643 | rv |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | May 6, 2026 | Even | 1,223 | lv |
| Slingshot Strategies | Apr 20, 2026 | D +5 | 1,018 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 34%
R 66%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- James Talarico (D) Ken Paxton (R)