Arizona's 6th Congressional District
55%
Dem
45%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.4·80% of simulations: R +12.4 to D +15.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +1.4
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | D +3 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 15, 2025 | D +1 | 581 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 55%
R 45%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (R+1).
- Candidates
- Joanna Mendoza (D) Juan Ciscomani (R) (inc.)