Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
86%
GOP
14%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.0·80% of simulations: R +24.0 to D +2.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +11.0
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +5 | 400 | lv |
| Expedition Strategies | Jan 12, 2026 | R +9 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 14%
R 86%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+9).
- Candidates
- Alex Kelloff (D) Jeff Hurd (R) (inc.)