Florida's 27th Congressional District
83%
GOP
17%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +10.7·80% of simulations: R +25.3 to D +3.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +10.7
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies | Jul 27, 2025 | R +11 | 804 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 17%
R 83%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Richard Lamondin (D) Maria Elvira Salazar (R) (inc.)