Kentucky's 6th Congressional District
93%
GOP
7%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +14.3·80% of simulations: R +26.9 to R +1.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.2
Forecasted margin
R +14.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | Even | 675 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 7%
R 93%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+14).
- Candidates
- Zach Dembo (D) Ralph Alvarado (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.