Kentucky Senate
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +23.3·80% of simulations: R +35.4 to R +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +26.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +1.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +23.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 19, 2025 | R +11 | 650 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 1%
R 99%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+30).
- Candidates
- Charles Booker (D) Andy Barr (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.